![]() and the Trump Administration's overall handling of the virus caused confidence in Trump to plummet. Trump spent most of 2019 hovering around even money against the prospective Democratic candidate, and early 2020 saw his odds grow until he was a 2-to-1 favorite.Īll of that changed with the continued spread of COVID-19. In poker terms, just because ace-queen beat ace-king in this instance doesn't mean Trump was actually a favorite to win the election - everything just broke his way late in the campaign and he got the win like someone who spikes a queen on the river." Looking at the Movement Thus Far "I still think Clinton was a favorite to win the election despite being a historically poor candidate but I failed to take into account swing voters breaking for the unknown over the known and the Clinton campaign's failure to campaign in the Midwest. "When a race gets within the margin of error things are up for grabs. I hadn't taken the structural advantage Republicans have grown in the electoral college into account and I didn't adjust to the race tightening late after the Comey letter which was a mistake," Gill said. odds) on Clinton capturing the election didn't come home. While he won wagers on Hillary Clinton taking the popular vote, his 1-to-3 play (-300 in U.S. The next presidential election brought more profits from Obama bets, but 2016 marked another losing year for Gill. Gill has a unique viewpoint due to knowledge of politics and betting markets. "As a progressive on most political issues I do have a partisan lean towards Democrats and need to take that into account when wagering to try and ensure i'm not allowing personal bias to cloud my ability to wager profitably," he said. "For example, if Biden wins Pennsylvania this year, it's highly likely he wins Michigan as well, or if Trump wins Florida he's likely to have won the slightly more Republican-leaning swing states like Georgia and Iowa," Gill explained.ĭuring the midterm elections, Gill fired a low volume and was forced to take a lesson from his loss on a Democratic senator from Wisconsin to be re-elected. He also hit a parlay on several swing states, which he said can be a profitable strategy in election betting. He began his efforts in 2008, when he made a wager on Barack Obama, believing that his lead in the polls was outside the margin for error. politics and betting markets, Gill's skillset uniquely positioned him for an analytical approach to the political markets that enabled him to turn a profit in several elections running. elections.īecause of his deep knowledge of both U.S. He also holds dual citizenship and votes in the U.S. ![]() Though he's a native Australian, Gill possesses a political science degree and has closely followed U.S. To get an idea, PokerNews spoke to 35-year-old poker player and avid bettor Oliver Gill. presidential election odds? Politics and Betting What do the market movements mean and what sort of adjustments lie ahead for 2020 in the U.S. Trump again enters the 2020 election as the underdog, though it hasn't always been that way and the odds are far closer this time around against Joe Biden. ![]() Publicly available models gave Trump no better than a 29% likelihood of winning, with most far below that number. Most recently, of course, Donald Trump prevailed in 2016 despite the betting markets pegging him as something like a 6-to-1 underdog. ![]() For most Americans, that means being bombarded with political ads, arguing at family dinner's and against strangers online, and voting for the next leader of the free world.įor bettors and bookmakers, it means a once-every-four years market that has produced some fascinating results at times. presidential election is just weeks away. What Else to Look For Approaching Nov.
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